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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
31%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 11 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 8 games
88%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 29 games
41%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 29 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 20 games
65%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
533 picks · 735 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 569 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
493 picks · 612 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
484 picks · 576 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 411 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
446 picks · 803 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
445 picks · 983 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
Team Secret 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
48% · 432 games51% · 534 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
45% · 261 game52% · 277 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Tiny
TinyMikSa`
54% · 548 games44% · 252 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
51% · 84 games51% · 307 games
LionPablo
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
51% · 496 games52% · 451 game
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:9
Team Secret 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingParker
51% · 321 game45% · 99 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
47% · 471 game53% · 81 game
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
56% · 231 game48% · 476 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Lion
LionThiolicor
49% · 260 games51% · 381 game
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockPuppey
52% · 68 games48% · 314 games
TuskPablo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 69%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2