Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sexy
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 12 games
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 8 games
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 6 games
cybercats
Rubick
jesv · 14 games
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 13 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
Doomoften banned
zenica · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 8 games
Mirana
forcemajor · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 627 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 533 bans
Doom
537 picks · 1054 bans
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1319 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1177 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 950 bans
Techies
455 picks · 466 bans
Mirana
438 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength62% Team Sexy
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:6
Team Sexy 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on cybercats — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 24:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa7jesu
Pangolieryoung G
Void SpiritMirage
VisageDkFogas
EnigmaNefrit
WindrangerDarkLord^
Bounty Hunter9Class
Spirit Breakerforcemajor
Shadow DemonHduo
TechiesDukalis
Game 2prediction missed
Team Sexy 46%cybercats 54%
The model gave 54% on cybercats — the game was taken by Team Sexy.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 54%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2