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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 7 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 5 games
80%

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
721 picks · 619 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 524 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
507 picks · 982 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
504 picks · 1260 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1124 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 900 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
420 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
415 picks · 600 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Team Sexy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
Team Sexy 63%MoneyMakers 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
55% · 193 games49% · 156 games
BloodseekerLukas
Bloodseeker
Juggernaut
Juggernaut7jesu
44% · 78 games48% · 268 games
PuckEgor
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
55% · 119 games37% · 67 games
Legion CommanderBb3px
Legion Commander
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
55% · 100 games47% · 76 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderHduo
52% · 185 games52% · 108 games
LichCeMaTheSlayeR
Lich
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Team Sexy 57%MoneyMakers 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King7jesu
45% · 187 games57% · 90 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderMirage
38% · 162 games54% · 254 games
DoomBb3px
Doom
Techies
Techies9Class
49% · 173 games53% · 169 games
Keeper of the LightEgor
Keeper of the Light
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
56% · 119 games51% · 88 games
VenomancerBignum
Venomancer
Oracle
OracleHduo
46% · 65 games52% · 105 games
PugnaCeMaTheSlayeR
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 69%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2