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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 6 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 5 games
80%

Natus Vincere Junior

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Daze · 6 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Riddys · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
990 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
583 picks · 934 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 407 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 412 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1209 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Team Sexy 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 24:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback7jesu
60% · 12 games42% · 35 games
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
Phantom Lancer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
58% · 93 games43% · 64 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
56% · 205 games56% · 82 games
RikiRi4man
Riki
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
45% · 99 games52% · 249 games
MiranaDaze
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHduo
48% · 136 games44% · 115 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct37:22
Team Sexy 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist7jesu
51% · 119 games52% · 111 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNefrit
48% · 79 games60% · 187 games
Doompma
Doom
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
47% · 519 games51% · 449 games
TinyRi4man
Tiny
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
45% · 193 games45% · 399 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHduo
47% · 262 games54% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 70%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2