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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 14 games
71%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 9 games
100%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 8 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%

Natus Vincere Junior

Mirana
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ri4man · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Ri4man · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 487 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
576 picks · 622 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1101 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 503 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1226 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
471 picks · 1045 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
464 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 48%
Hero pool strength60% Team Sexy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Team Sexy 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
48% · 246 games49% · 83 games
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
Phantom Lancer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNefrit
50% · 156 games47% · 191 game
Storm SpiritRi4man
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
55% · 189 games53% · 353 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Rubick
Rubick9Class
45% · 556 games52% · 376 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaHduo
49% · 171 game51% · 315 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Team Sexy 62%Natus Vincere Junior 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark7jesu
55% · 170 games46% · 207 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
47% · 310 games47% · 327 games
BatriderRi4man
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerNefrit
56% · 114 games50% · 71 game
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
50% · 178 games43% · 101 game
Spirit BreakerDaze
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OracleHduo
49% · 133 games58% · 199 games
TechiesRiddys
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 68%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2