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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 6 games
83%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 4 games
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
75%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 24 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 16 games
38%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
937 picks · 640 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 458 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
564 picks · 898 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 540 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
503 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1063 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 336 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:10
Team Sexy 58%Sigma.YNT 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa7jesu
53% · 211 games40% · 150 games
Drow RangerDarkLord^
Drow Ranger
Visage
VisageNefrit
56% · 230 games48% · 314 games
Puckforyou
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
57% · 331 game45% · 398 games
Death Prophetkur0patbI4
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickHduo
49% · 782 games47% · 668 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Disruptor
Disruptor9Class
63% · 309 games43% · 333 games
UndyingVANSKOR
Undying
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Team Sexy 59%Sigma.YNT 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage7jesu
59% · 41 game55% · 53 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Visage
VisageNefrit
56% · 189 games46% · 68 games
Batriderforyou
Batrider
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMoonlight
51% · 24 games48% · 173 games
Snapfirekur0patbI4
Snapfire
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
54% · 282 games47% · 279 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Lich
LichHduo
41% · 69 games40% · 32 games
WarlockVANSKOR
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 61%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2