European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexyloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
X3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sexy
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 19 games
Tinysignature
velheor · 18 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 13 games
Morphlingsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 364 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 337 bans
Rubick
301 picks · 217 bans
Mirana
271 picks · 272 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 146 bans
Snapfire
193 picks · 106 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 247 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Sexy 24%X3 76%
The model gave 76% on X3 — the game was taken by X3.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Sexy 24%X3 76%
The model gave 76% on X3 — the game was taken by X3.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 76%
Series resultX3 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2