Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 4 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
Tusk
AhFu · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 3 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 930 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 561 bans
Mars
325 picks · 598 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 565 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 169 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)14% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 76%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect