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LOOT.BET Pro Series Season 7. Юго-Восточная Азия · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 10 games
90%
Mars
Marssignature
Ohaiyo · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
44%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
439 picks · 181 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 125 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
317 picks · 628 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
315 picks · 693 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 477 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
300 picks · 526 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 338 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 360 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Team SMG
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total71% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:20
Team SMG 65%Army Geniuses 35%
The model gave 65% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderMoon
57% · 60 games55% · 48 games
Nature's Prophetdb-
Nature's Prophet
Riki
RikiMidOne
43% · 24 games47% · 21 game
UnderlordwoMy
Underlord
Viper
Viperkpii
47% · 53 games43% · 104 games
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Dragon Knight
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAhFu
59% · 119 games47% · 119 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterRoddgeee
49% · 36 games
Game 2prediction correct41:36
Team SMG 62%Army Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMidOne
51% · 70 games46% · 54 games
Anti-Magedb-
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
49% · 55 games46% · 111 games
LinaMamangDaya
Lina
Magnus
Magnuskpii
40% · 18 games39% · 28 games
BrewmasterwoMy
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickAhFu
62% · 51 game60% · 80 games
Shadow DemonLym-
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonRoddgeee
48% · 79 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 71%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2