?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 14 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 11 games
91%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 11 games
55%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 169 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
351 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 515 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 345 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
249 picks · 411 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 330 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 242 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
234 picks · 540 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 35%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total65% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
Team SMG 60%Army Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMoon
46% · 152 games45% · 168 games
MarswoMy
Mars
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
51% · 154 games45% · 178 games
Void SpiritMamangDaya
Void Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritkpii
63% · 19 games46% · 47 games
Lycandb-
Lycan
Invoker
InvokerRoddgeee
59% · 141 game50% · 127 games
PhoenixLym-
Phoenix
Alchemist
AlchemistAhFu
56% · 54 games
Game 2prediction missed21:51
Team SMG 58%Army Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMidOne
49% · 58 games58% · 41 game
Svendb-
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoon
48% · 159 games55% · 98 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritkpii
48% · 9 games44% · 38 games
KunkkawoMy
Kunkka
Undying
UndyingRoddgeee
38% · 36 games56% · 102 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Alchemist
AlchemistAhFu
49% · 17 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2