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BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Moon · 7 games
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Poloson · 7 games
43%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 11 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
588 picks · 445 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 658 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
363 picks · 487 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 791 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
304 picks · 386 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 494 bans
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
255 picks · 161 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
251 picks · 824 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:52
Team SMG 59%Army Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunamks-
54% · 70 games49% · 35 games
Pudgedb-
Pudge
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
50% · 173 games46% · 179 games
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Magnus
MagnusMidOne
57% · 36 games52% · 65 games
EnigmawoMy
Enigma
Undying
UndyingAhFu
54% · 81 game48% · 65 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Oracle
OraclePoloson
50% · 16 games38% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct32:37
Team SMG 62%Army Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidmks-
62% · 118 games51% · 49 games
Pudgedb-
Pudge
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoon
51% · 147 games35% · 20 games
BroodmotherwoMy
Broodmother
Magnus
MagnusMidOne
51% · 37 games50% · 226 games
TinyinYourdreaM
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroAhFu
49% · 98 games46% · 133 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Undying
UndyingPoloson
52% · 112 games47% · 84 games
Skywrath MageVarizh
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct44:23
Team SMG 61%Army Geniuses 39%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectremks-
54% · 40 games44% · 180 games
MorphlinginYourdreaM
Morphling
Puck
PuckMoon
50% · 268 games46% · 516 games
MarswoMy
Mars
Batrider
BatriderMidOne
53% · 149 games51% · 341 game
Queen of Paindb-
Queen of Pain
Snapfire
SnapfireAhFu
48% · 308 games57% · 88 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Bane
BanePoloson
53% · 399 games45% · 39 games
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 69%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3