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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 18 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 14 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 8 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 8 games
63%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 20 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
759 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
425 picks · 1007 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 379 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 943 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
395 picks · 609 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
388 picks · 602 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 207 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
Team SMG 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMidOne
47% · 62 games41% · 9 games
Phantom LancerinYourdreaM
Phantom Lancer
Clinkz
ClinkzAhFu
little data53% · 22 games
Shadow FiendYowe
Shadow Fiend
Oracle
OracleJaunuel
58% · 14 games40% · 11 games
Magnusdb-
Magnus
52% · 14 games
TechiesJhocam
Techies
63% · 20 games
BaneVarizh
Bane
Game 2prediction missed52:21
Team SMG 40%Army Geniuses 60%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Team SMG in 50:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
50% · 229 games54% · 57 games
AlchemistinYourdreaM
Alchemist
Venomancer
VenomancerJaunuel
51% · 40 games49% · 53 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesAhFu
53% · 90 games45% · 42 games
Magnusdb-
Magnus
43% · 66 games
Keeper of the LightJhocam
Keeper of the Light
52% · 141 game
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed31:3
Team SMG 41%Army Geniuses 59%
The model gave 59% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMidOne
52% · 86 games47% · 44 games
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAhFu
55% · 157 games50% · 34 games
KunkkaYowe
Kunkka
Oracle
OracleJaunuel
51% · 28 games46% · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnerdb-
Centaur Warrunner
49% · 132 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
42% · 40 games
PugnaVarizh
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 66%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3