Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Rubick
Poloson · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 15 games
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 9 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 8 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
695 picks · 594 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1077 bans
Doom
430 picks · 765 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 1010 bans
Mirana
377 picks · 201 bans
Enchantress
374 picks · 539 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 817 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:45
Team SMG 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 49:18.
Game 2prediction correct7:36
Team SMG 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 33:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 61%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2