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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 20 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Moon · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Xepher · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Xepher · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 501 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1159 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
469 picks · 869 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
420 picks · 1070 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
402 picks · 860 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
395 picks · 216 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
394 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total64% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Team SMG 41%BOOM Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMidOne
53% · 419 games55% · 61 game
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAhFu
48% · 166 games48% · 291 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
49% · 294 games48% · 85 games
MagnusMushi
Magnus
48% · 211 games
SnapfireXepher
Snapfire
53% · 231 game
MiranaxNova
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed30:21
Team SMG 46%BOOM Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMidOne
57% · 152 games41% · 14 games
LunaNatsumi
Luna
Techies
TechiesAhFu
58% · 155 games39% · 131 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerJaunuel
55% · 52 games49% · 114 games
PangolierMushi
Pangolier
42% · 64 games
Keeper of the LightXepher
Keeper of the Light
42% · 36 games
LichxNova
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 64%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2