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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragonwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 4 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 2 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
vtFαded · 2 games
50%

Dragon

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axe
ghost · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 1 game
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 898 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 543 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 584 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
288 picks · 531 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 251 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
240 picks · 391 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
Team SMG 42%Dragon 58%
The model gave 58% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingvtFαded
50% · 6 games39% · 41 game
Timbersawghost
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderOhaiyo
61% · 14 games
Tusk
TuskMushi
68% · 15 games
Oracle
OracleAhFu
50% · 6 games
Game 2prediction correct32:38
Team SMG 42%Dragon 58%
The model gave 58% on Dragon — the game was taken by Dragon in 50:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavervtFαded
57% · 3 games43% · 18 games
Enigmaghost
Enigma
Tidehunter
TidehunterOhaiyo
57% · 10 games
Tusk
TuskAhFu
56% · 5 games
Bane
BaneMushi
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 71%
Series resultDragon 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2