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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 23 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 22 games
59%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
74%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 15 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AhFu · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
93%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Roddgeee · 13 games
77%

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 11 games
45%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 528 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
357 picks · 261 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 205 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 722 bans
56%
Io
Io
241 picks · 590 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 306 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
235 picks · 333 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
233 picks · 153 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total66% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Team SMG 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMidOne
53% · 84 games48% · 148 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
55% · 118 games43% · 215 games
TidehunterKimizu
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
53% · 124 games45% · 84 games
Ogre MagiRR
Ogre Magi
Bane
BaneRoddgeee
58% · 121 game
Game 2prediction correct32:21
Team SMG 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMidOne
42% · 65 games43% · 185 games
PuckBob
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoon
51% · 66 games56% · 57 games
Centaur WarrunnerKimizu
Centaur Warrunner
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
59% · 60 games49% · 72 games
Ogre MagiRR
Ogre Magi
Tidehunter
TidehunterRoddgeee
56% · 123 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 66%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2