BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 8 games
Bane
ninjaboogie · 7 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Execration
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
Miranasignature
Shanks · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
621 picks · 478 bans
Marci
462 picks · 678 bans
Dawnbreaker
394 picks · 558 bans
Puck
385 picks · 838 bans
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 402 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 478 bans
Zeus
273 picks · 357 bans
Dazzle
263 picks · 164 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total74% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:25
Team SMG 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMoon
Phantom LancerPalos
MagnusMidOne
RazorTino-
SnapfireAhFu
Death ProphetBob
BanePoloson
Nyx AssassinShanks
Game 2prediction correct38:31
Team SMG 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsMoon
Templar AssassinPalos
MagnusMidOne
Primal BeastTino-
SnapfireAhFu
Death ProphetBob
BanePoloson
Earth SpiritShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 74%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2