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Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 5 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 4 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
33%

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 9 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
MS · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xiaofu · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 944 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 571 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 610 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
293 picks · 581 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 262 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)13% vs 26%
Hero pool strength52% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:43
Team SMG 45%LBZS 55%
The model gave 55% on LBZS — the game was taken by Team SMG in 58:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetvtFαded
43% · 65 games51% · 68 games
JuggernautMS
Juggernaut
Mars
MarsOhaiyo
60% · 76 games45% · 61 game
Enigmaxiaofu
Enigma
Oracle
OracleAhFu
51% · 53 games47% · 121 game
Earth SpiritCatYou
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMushi
54% · 56 games
Game 2prediction correct26:42
Team SMG 43%LBZS 57%
The model gave 57% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavervtFαded
55% · 21 game47% · 29 games
MedusaMS
Medusa
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMushi
49% · 39 games48% · 26 games
Sand Kingxiaofu
Sand King
Mars
MarsOhaiyo
48% · 65 games54% · 111 games
Earth SpiritCatYou
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskAhFu
46% · 41 game
Game 3prediction missed34:30
Team SMG 43%LBZS 57%
The model gave 57% on LBZS — the game was taken by Team SMG in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordvtFαded
61% · 32 games38% · 17 games
Outworld DestroyerMS
Outworld Destroyer
Timbersaw
TimbersawOhaiyo
44% · 26 games54% · 30 games
Batriderxiaofu
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAhFu
32% · 13 games54% · 24 games
PangolierCatYou
Pangolier
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMushi
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 62%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3