BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 7 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 5 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
pieliedie · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Moon · 4 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
638 picks · 495 bans
Marci
468 picks · 689 bans
Dawnbreaker
410 picks · 577 bans
Puck
404 picks · 856 bans
Winter Wyvern
331 picks · 407 bans
Death Prophet
298 picks · 478 bans
Zeus
278 picks · 375 bans
Enchantress
269 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:28
Team SMG 75%Lilgun 25%
The model gave 75% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 38:59.
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Team SMG 75%Lilgun 25%
The model gave 75% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 18:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 75%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2