BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MCMoon Chaserswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Lion
AhFu · 12 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
Marssignature
Ohaiyo · 8 games
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 7 games
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
436 picks · 173 bans
Mars
329 picks · 527 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 179 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 478 bans
Puck
311 picks · 768 bans
Nyx Assassin
302 picks · 624 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 227 bans
Enchantress
279 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team SMG 68%Moon Chasers 32%
The model gave 68% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Moon Chasers.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 68%
Series resultMoon Chasers 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1