OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 18 games
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 16 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 13 games
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 31 game
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Lion
Jaunuel · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Leshracoften banned
Deth · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
286 picks · 103 bans
Mars
268 picks · 411 bans
Lina
262 picks · 524 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 359 bans
Luna
237 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 239 bans
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total64% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:20
Team SMG 61%Neon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreMidOne
PuckMikoto
MiranaMoon
MagnusUnknown-
Necrophoskpii
Weaverxiaoyu154
EarthshakerAhFu
TuskNARMAN
BloodseekerRoddgeee
TinyJaunuel
Game 2prediction missed47:50
Team SMG 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMidOne
GyrocopterUnknown-
Void SpiritMoon
Queen of PainMikoto
Night Stalkerkpii
Marsxiaoyu154
InvokerRoddgeee
BrewmasterJaunuel
GrimstrokeAhFu
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Game 3prediction correct31:33
Team SMG 60%Neon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMidOne
GyrocopterUnknown-
LeshracMoon
Queen of PainMikoto
Death Prophetkpii
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
Monkey KingAhFu
WeaverNARMAN
PangolierRoddgeee
LionJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 64%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3