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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
92%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 12 games
58%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
60%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 22 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
269 picks · 497 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 343 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
251 picks · 424 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
248 picks · 523 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 323 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 486 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:31
Team SMG 48%Nigma Galaxy SEA 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoon
46% · 108 gameslittle data
SniperinYourdreaM
Sniper
Luna
LunaMidOne
39% · 74 games61% · 85 games
TinyAlaCrity
Tiny
Necrophos
Necrophoskpii
58% · 18 games42% · 25 games
VenomancerMeracle
Venomancer
Monkey King
Monkey KingAhFu
51% · 90 games52% · 91 game
SnapfirePoloson
Snapfire
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
46% · 48 games50% · 137 games
MiranaJhocam
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed45:39
Team SMG 45%Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Team SMG in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMidOne
47% · 51 game58% · 53 games
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoon
42% · 13 games47% · 65 games
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkpii
40% · 32 games56% · 15 games
SpectreMeracle
Spectre
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
55% · 22 games55% · 37 games
WeaverJhocam
Weaver
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
49% · 68 games53% · 16 games
SilencerPoloson
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 57%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2