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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 10 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Jing · 17 games
65%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 15 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 13 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bok · 10 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bok · 10 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
758 picks · 483 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
537 picks · 389 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 447 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 612 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
389 picks · 272 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
378 picks · 648 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 763 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:22
Team SMG 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
53% · 275 games47% · 129 games
UrsaAkashi
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
46% · 363 games51% · 186 games
EnigmaBok
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaPoloson
52% · 306 games48% · 201 game
Primal BeastMac
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAhFu
52% · 440 games50% · 675 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
50% · 193 games
Silencercml
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed35:13
Team SMG 48%Polaris Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoon
48% · 144 games55% · 29 games
SpectreAkashi
Spectre
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMidOne
52% · 174 games54% · 32 games
BrewmasterBok
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaPoloson
51% · 231 game45% · 151 game
BatriderMac
Batrider
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
52% · 87 games53% · 382 games
TinyBoomy
Tiny
41% · 42 games
Gyrocoptercml
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 58%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2