Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ZeroTwowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
Mushi · 4 games
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 2 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 2 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 2 games
Miranaoften banned
AhFu · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ninjaboogie · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 2 games
Abaddon
ninjaboogie · 1 game
ZeroTwo
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Poloson · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
33 picks · 67 bans
Puck
30 picks · 75 bans
Earth Spirit
28 picks · 20 bans
Void Spirit
27 picks · 41 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 27 bans
Monkey King
23 picks · 42 bans
Undying
22 picks · 40 bans
Ember Spirit
20 picks · 26 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 43%
Hero pool strength62% ZeroTwo
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% ZeroTwo
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Team SMG 42%ZeroTwo 58%
The model gave 58% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavervtFαded
Phantom AssassinDreamocel
MarsMushi
Ember SpiritCHYuan
RubickAhFu
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Brewmasterninjaboogie
Skywrath MageinYourdreaM
43% · 3 games
Ogre MagiPoloson
Game 2prediction correct6:27
Team SMG 44%ZeroTwo 56%
The model gave 56% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 26:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night StalkervtFαded
LycanDreamocel
UnderlordMushi
Marsxiaoyu154
WindrangerAhFu
LeshracCHYuan
Spirit Breakerninjaboogie
LinainYourdreaM
little data
Shadow DemonPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteZeroTwo · 66%
Series resultZeroTwo 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2