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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hive-win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 17 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 16 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
23%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 12 games
42%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 12 games
25%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techiessignature
Aidar · 11 games
64%

Hive-

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 8 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
slimeyao · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
byun · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
slimeyao · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
20%
Chen
Chenoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
67%
Kez
Kezoften banned
byun · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 437 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
580 picks · 321 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
453 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 382 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 529 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 414 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 1040 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:47
Team Spirit Academy 56%Hive- 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batrider86
56% · 317 games52% · 157 games
Shadow Fiendbyun
Shadow Fiend
Axe
Axekae
50% · 245 games49% · 286 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
56% · 89 games47% · 282 games
Tuskkur0patbI4
Tusk
Lich
Lichkyford
43% · 74 games
Game 2prediction missed20:44
Team Spirit Academy 56%Hive- 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Hive- in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeus86
41% · 27 games54% · 141 game
Windrangerbyun
Windranger
Batrider
Batriderkae
49% · 162 games52% · 132 games
Clockwerkkur0patbI4
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
37% · 49 games53% · 79 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Bane
Banekyford
58% · 114 games
Game 3prediction missed17:45
Team Spirit Academy 57%Hive- 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Hive- in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit86
56% · 18 games46% · 136 games
Windrangerbyun
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkae
48% · 100 games49% · 17 games
Winter Wyvernkur0patbI4
Winter Wyvern
Bane
Banekyford
57% · 74 games57% · 72 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
37% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 59%
Series resultHive- 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3