CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
Dazzle
kyford · 10 games
Techies
Aidar · 10 games
Inner Circle
Marsoften banned
Norma · 26 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 25 games
Tusk
Fernans · 25 games
Warlock
Se · 25 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
Puckoften banned
niche · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
621 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 427 bans
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 624 bans
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 968 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 561 bans
Warlock
409 picks · 250 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 454 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 665 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Inner Circle
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:41
Team Spirit Academy 38%Inner Circle 62%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverrubikon155
Shadow Fiend423
Rubick86
BeastmasterSupream^
Largokae
Slardarlaise
Undyingkyford
HoodwinkFernans
LionAidar
ClockwerkSe
Game 2prediction correct31:42
Team Spirit Academy 36%Inner Circle 64%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherrubikon155
Shadow Fiend423
Puck86
Brewmasterlaise
Dark Seerkae
TinySupream^
Nyx AssassinAidar
DisruptorSe
Dazzlekyford
TuskFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 74%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2