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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 23 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
25%
Largo
Largosignature
kae · 12 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 12 games
42%
Axe
Axeoften banned
kae · 8 games
50%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Bane
Banesignature
Kidaro · 15 games
87%
Doom
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 14 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
423 · 12 games
42%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 11 games
27%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Se · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
466 picks · 286 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
319 picks · 128 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 138 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 449 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 291 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 420 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 213 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
264 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Inner Circle
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total54% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:47
Team Spirit Academy 45%Inner Circle 55%
The model gave 55% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 1:02:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomkae
47% · 287 games57% · 60 games
Lone Druidrubikon155
Lone Druid
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiseki
46% · 143 games53% · 183 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit86
50% · 190 games56% · 214 games
LargoNorma
Largo
Lion
LionAidar
46% · 188 games54% · 153 games
MiranaKidaro
Mirana
Undying
Undyingsaillyn
46% · 240 games46% · 438 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed26:30
Team Spirit Academy 48%Inner Circle 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 48:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiseki
52% · 95 games49% · 95 games
LycanNorma
Lycan
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit86
45% · 94 games51% · 110 games
Doomrubikon155
Doom
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkae
45% · 55 games58% · 99 games
Dragon Knightdualrazee
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaAidar
49% · 114 games51% · 154 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Bane
Banesaillyn
50% · 208 games50% · 108 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed41:40
Team Spirit Academy 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 59:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKiseki
49% · 228 games54% · 131 game
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastkae
44% · 181 game55% · 171 game
Kezrubikon155
Kez
Pangolier
Pangolier86
48% · 470 games51% · 175 games
DoomNorma
Doom
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
49% · 118 games50% · 568 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Bane
Banesaillyn
53% · 283 games48% · 235 games
Shadow DemonKidaro
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3