PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 14 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
SunshineRR · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 8 games
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 39 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 34 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 32 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 31 game
Tusk
slimeyao · 31 game
Snapfire
RESPECT · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
538 picks · 854 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 374 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 589 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 787 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 579 bans
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 556 bans
Mars
341 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 64%
Hero pool strength63% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total83% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:23
Team Spirit Academy 29%HULIGANI 71%
The model gave 71% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherrubikon155
Puckxn丶e
Pudge86
Dragon Knightv1olent-
UnderlordSunshineRR
MarsBb3px
GrimstrokeAidar
ChenRESPECT
Dazzlekyford
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Team Spirit Academy 17%HULIGANI 83%
The model gave 83% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 28:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 83%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2