Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 22 games
Lion
Aidar · 16 games
Kunkka
86 · 14 games
Batridersignature
86 · 12 games
Largooften banned
86 · 12 games
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kae · 9 games
Level UP
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Windranger
queezy · 13 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 362 bans
Clockwerk
361 picks · 646 bans
Bane
343 picks · 386 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 193 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 451 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total82% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:41
Team Spirit Academy 30%Level UP 70%
The model gave 70% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker86
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Centaur Warrunnerkae
AlchemistWoE
MiranaAidar
DawnbreakerBb3px
50% · 141 game
Windrangerqueezy
51% · 45 games
TechiesHtrd
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Team Spirit Academy 30%Level UP 70%
The model gave 70% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos86
LunaWoE
Largokae
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Dark WillowAidar
Storm SpiritAinkrad
58% · 72 games
UndyingHtrd
57% · 61 game
Lionqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 82%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2