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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 20 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 17 games
24%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 14 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 14 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 14 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SunshineRR · 12 games
17%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
27%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 10 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bashka · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
638 picks · 814 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 580 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 398 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
451 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
406 picks · 1049 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 680 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 605 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
365 picks · 969 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Team Spirit Academy 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkhairo
52% · 109 games54% · 188 games
Leshracyoung G
Leshrac
Pangolier
Pangolier86
48% · 402 games47% · 461 game
Dragon Knightselfhate
Dragon Knight
Axe
Axekae
44% · 275 games54% · 308 games
BatriderCovisnine
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAidar
55% · 451 game49% · 565 games
WarlockVaniLLl
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakirokyford
48% · 843 games50% · 558 games
Tinyariel
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct25:37
Team Spirit Academy 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawkae
52% · 299 games45% · 300 games
Dragon Knightselfhate
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendhairo
53% · 365 games54% · 145 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Razor
Razor86
55% · 188 games48% · 213 games
PhoenixCovisnine
Phoenix
Lion
LionAidar
51% · 103 games50% · 427 games
Tinyariel
Tiny
Warlock
Warlockkyford
48% · 702 games45% · 572 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 77%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2