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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
24%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 11 games
36%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
22%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 9 games
44%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 17 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 13 games
38%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 934 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 417 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 622 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
443 picks · 582 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
430 picks · 943 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
403 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 660 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 439 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:40
Team Spirit Academy 43%VP.Prodigy 57%
The model gave 57% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 50:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorrubikon155
51% · 50 games56% · 296 games
PuckKatsura
Puck
Kunkka
Kunkkakae
44% · 83 games65% · 57 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Primal Beast
Primal Beast86
47% · 130 games51% · 55 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionAidar
48% · 86 games49% · 99 games
Skywrath Mageraregods
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
Tuskkyford
44% · 326 games48% · 168 games
MarciJANTER
Marci
Game 2prediction correct22:51
Team Spirit Academy 46%VP.Prodigy 54%
The model gave 54% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzrubikon155
56% · 80 games51% · 172 games
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Mars
Marskae
47% · 344 games45% · 47 games
Razorcutie
Razor
Slardar
Slardar86
50% · 255 games44% · 114 games
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Undying
Undyingkyford
52% · 144 games52% · 204 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Lion
LionAidar
57% · 76 games44% · 362 games
TuskJANTER
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 61%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2