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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
24%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 14 games
29%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 13 games
31%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 12 games
17%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aidar · 10 games
60%

Zero Tenacity

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 36 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 35 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 35 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 34 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 31 game
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 28 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
583 picks · 816 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 546 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 391 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
422 picks · 292 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
385 picks · 1012 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 653 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 579 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 515 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total94% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:44
Team Spirit Academy 17%Zero Tenacity 83%
The model gave 83% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolier86
42% · 218 games56% · 175 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Clinkz
Clinkzhairo
48% · 66 games49% · 301 game
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkae
54% · 357 games51% · 254 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAidar
43% · 141 game58% · 342 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Jakiro
Jakirokyford
50% · 528 games49% · 238 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct6:26
Team Spirit Academy 19%Zero Tenacity 81%
The model gave 81% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinhairo
53% · 343 games57% · 194 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Beastmaster
Beastmaster86
46% · 468 games56% · 327 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Slardar
Slardarkae
50% · 369 games48% · 511 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Techies
TechiesAidar
35% · 36 games51% · 567 games
WarlockMoOz
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakirokyford
46% · 740 games52% · 357 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 94%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2