Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Staffloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aurora Staffwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
515 picks · 805 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 625 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 494 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
435 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
429 picks · 1021 bans
Gyrocopter
410 picks · 772 bans
Lich
391 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Aurora Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Spirit Staff 50%Aurora Staff 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Staff · 50%
Series resultAurora Staff 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1