ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 40 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 26 games
Batridersignature
rue · 25 games
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
471 picks · 386 bans
Clockwerk
435 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 497 bans
Lion
387 picks · 203 bans
Gyrocopter
385 picks · 625 bans
Phoenix
375 picks · 423 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
343 picks · 879 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
Team Spirit 70%1w Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYatoro
GyrocopterMunkushi~
TinyLarl
LycanCloud
Night StalkerCollapse
MagnusChira JUNIOR
Shadow Demonrue
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
LichMiposhka
DisruptorFishman
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Team Spirit 85%1w Team 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2