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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 27 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 11 games
18%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 11 games
82%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 508 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
392 picks · 317 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 380 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 563 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
338 picks · 162 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
333 picks · 407 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
328 picks · 754 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 446 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:10
Team Spirit 78%9Pandas 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
54% · 50 games45% · 37 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
50% · 264 games44% · 248 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerLarl
55% · 171 game43% · 238 games
Doomlaise
Doom
Chen
ChenMiposhka
65% · 126 games47% · 254 games
PhoenixSolo
Phoenix
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
50% · 383 games48% · 217 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Team Spirit 78%9Pandas 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
50% · 154 games46% · 34 games
Drow RangerV-Tune
Drow Ranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
49% · 104 games55% · 233 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
53% · 68 games50% · 144 games
Marslaise
Mars
Chen
ChenMiposhka
61% · 78 games42% · 100 games
Snapfirelupsione
Snapfire
Muerta
Muertarue
46% · 130 games50% · 23 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2