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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
74%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
92%
Razor
Razorsignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Mirana
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
57%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
368 picks · 344 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
325 picks · 301 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
271 picks · 512 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 567 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
250 picks · 464 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
236 picks · 598 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
220 picks · 343 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
220 picks · 121 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Team Spirit 77%Ancient Tribe 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYatoro
51% · 108 games63% · 48 games
Slarklil pleb
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
44% · 291 game51% · 264 games
PangoliermeLes
Pangolier
Axe
AxeCollapse
58% · 23 games49% · 144 games
TuskMTD
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
49% · 94 games55% · 56 games
Dark WillowLil
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickMira
45% · 146 games48% · 150 games
HoodwinkLeBronDota
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed24:40
Team Spirit 78%Ancient Tribe 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
47% · 53 games54% · 43 games
Sniperlil pleb
Sniper
Broodmother
BroodmotherCollapse
50% · 52 games53% · 63 games
Primal BeastMTD
Primal Beast
Zeus
ZeusLarl
45% · 24 games47% · 48 games
Legion CommandermeLes
Legion Commander
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
50% · 66 games49% · 23 games
TechiesLil
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
53% · 71 game48% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct39:11
Team Spirit 79%Ancient Tribe 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
49% · 81 game55% · 187 games
Death ProphetMTD
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskLarl
49% · 273 games49% · 79 games
Wraith Kinglil pleb
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
49% · 50 games53% · 149 games
MarcimeLes
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
49% · 147 games48% · 342 games
TinyLil
Tiny
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 247 games54% · 41 game
DazzleLeBronDota
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3