DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 16 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
375 picks · 329 bans
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 478 bans
Vengeful Spirit
330 picks · 316 bans
Pangolier
277 picks · 403 bans
Mars
273 picks · 374 bans
Techies
268 picks · 186 bans
Hoodwink
262 picks · 145 bans
Tiny
256 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 38%
Hero pool strength66% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
Team Spirit 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:01:37.
Game 2prediction correct25:6
Team Spirit 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 18:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2