?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
23savage · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 676 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 454 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 352 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 594 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
309 picks · 194 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
305 picks · 225 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 534 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
Team Spirit 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 106 games48% · 40 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckLarl
52% · 159 games45% · 52 games
Ursa23savage
Ursa
Mars
MarsCollapse
55% · 172 games47% · 255 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMira
52% · 104 games51% · 158 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
59% · 95 games43% · 131 game
WeaverQ
Weaver
Game 2prediction missed10:30
Team Spirit 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
50% · 169 games52% · 233 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
46% · 177 games61% · 182 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
54% · 174 games46% · 219 games
MarsJabz
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
47% · 165 games48% · 27 games
Nyx AssassinQ
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskMira
50% · 92 games45% · 116 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2