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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 30 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 26 games
77%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 23 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 20 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
497 picks · 689 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
449 picks · 709 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 419 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
418 picks · 326 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 960 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
382 picks · 886 bans
59%
Batrider
Batrider
381 picks · 435 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
Team Spirit 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
49% · 69 games41% · 45 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Dazzle
DazzleLarl
61% · 21 gamelittle data
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
Outworld Destroyer
Mars
MarsCollapse
45% · 60 games58% · 48 games
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
Tidehunter
Riki
Rikirue
59% · 22 games47% · 74 games
WeaverMira
Weaver
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
56% · 5 games50% · 10 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Team Spirit 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
55% · 220 games50% · 182 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyYatoro
45% · 422 games50% · 75 games
Nature's Prophetkiyotaka
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsCollapse
50% · 156 games45% · 526 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
52% · 376 games49% · 132 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
57% · 96 games49% · 355 games
MuertaMira
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2