?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 26 games
73%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
89%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
67%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
51%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 38 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 35 games
54%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 25 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
432 picks · 372 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 184 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 789 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 330 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 831 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
278 picks · 547 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 364 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 626 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:33
Team Spirit 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
46% · 81 game50% · 105 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLarl
51% · 174 games47% · 162 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaCollapse
52% · 95 games53% · 106 games
Primal BeastTORONTOTOKYO
Primal Beast
Tiny
Tinyrue
51% · 213 games55% · 150 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
39% · 59 games53% · 99 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed7:32
Team Spirit 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
54% · 162 games42% · 95 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingCollapse
54% · 98 games52% · 126 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLarl
52% · 121 game48% · 91 game
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
48% · 124 games55% · 106 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
44% · 5 games41% · 92 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2