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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 34 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
not me · 19 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
not me · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
Collapse · 14 games
71%
Techies
Techies
not me · 14 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
rue · 13 games
85%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 47 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
Nightfall · 30 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 29 games
48%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
439 picks · 211 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 309 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 507 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
312 picks · 295 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 511 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
282 picks · 139 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct59:28
Team Spirit 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:03:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYatoro
55% · 38 games52% · 108 games
LycanWs
Lycan
Doom
DoomBatyuk
57% · 101 game52% · 66 games
EarthshakerMikoto
Earthshaker
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
56% · 74 games49% · 147 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
50% · 386 games46% · 113 games
VenomancerKaori
Venomancer
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
46% · 161 game42% · 326 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed16:45
Team Spirit 56%Aurora Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerYatoro
42% · 22 games52% · 99 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
52% · 454 games42% · 130 games
Dark SeerWs
Dark Seer
Enigma
EnigmaBatyuk
56% · 125 games49% · 219 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernrue
55% · 214 games46% · 165 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
45% · 361 game54% · 563 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct0:1
Team Spirit 57%Aurora Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBatyuk
61% · 127 games43% · 171 game
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
53% · 156 games42% · 130 games
Dark SeerWs
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
50% · 477 games54% · 237 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernrue
52% · 198 games48% · 594 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
51% · 386 games46% · 212 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3