DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 54 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Mirana
Mira · 22 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 22 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 23 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nightfall · 21 game
Pugnasignature
Save- · 21 game
Rubicksignature
Save- · 20 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
730 picks · 543 bans
Disruptor
600 picks · 517 bans
Doom
558 picks · 1095 bans
Beastmaster
556 picks · 1256 bans
Techies
522 picks · 578 bans
Pangolier
473 picks · 937 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1083 bans
Enchantress
455 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:23
Team Spirit 51%BETBOOM TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 43:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
Anti-MageNightfall
Queen of PainLarl
PangoliergpK~
BroodmotherCollapse
DoomPure~
RubickMira
PugnaSave-
UndyingMiposhka
SilencerTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction missed8:28
Team Spirit 55%BETBOOM TEAM 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYatoro
MorphlingNightfall
AxeCollapse
TidehunterPure~
ViperLarl
Ember SpiritgpK~
Shadow DemonMira
RubickSave-
PugnaMiposhka
SilencerTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2