The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 59 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 22 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
675 picks · 459 bans
Techies
652 picks · 689 bans
Doom
584 picks · 1122 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1226 bans
Ember Spirit
496 picks · 1048 bans
Disruptor
489 picks · 461 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 728 bans
Pangolier
441 picks · 913 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Team Spirit 50%Blacklist International 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:07.
Game 2prediction missed30:42
Team Spirit 50%Blacklist International 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 51:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2