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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 21 game
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 20 games
60%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
91%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Panto · 11 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Lorenof · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
526 picks · 778 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
499 picks · 593 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 535 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
481 picks · 598 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 391 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
439 picks · 991 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 792 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
390 picks · 898 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:15
Team Spirit 72%Chimera Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYatoro
47% · 57 games43% · 116 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLarl
59% · 110 games50% · 238 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
51% · 129 games50% · 103 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderMiposhka
47% · 311 games49% · 55 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Bounty Hunter
Riki
Rikirue
58% · 45 games49% · 140 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Team Spirit 72%Chimera Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
54% · 67 games48% · 285 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
49% · 196 games38% · 77 games
AbaddonTA2000
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyLarl
49% · 253 games51% · 219 games
DawnbreakerDaxak
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
Zeusrue
47% · 97 games55% · 59 games
Spirit BreakerOneJey
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
53% · 247 games56% · 220 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2