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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
88%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 13 games
85%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
82%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 213 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 632 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
366 picks · 356 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 185 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
296 picks · 208 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:4
Team Spirit 55%Evil Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:20.
Game 2prediction missed11:24
Team Spirit 55%Evil Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2