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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 52 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 20 games
70%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 28 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 28 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
532 picks · 1038 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1308 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1172 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 944 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
439 picks · 225 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
438 picks · 454 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:5
Team Spirit 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 199 games55% · 132 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
41% · 108 games57% · 188 games
Storm SpiritChris Luck
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
44% · 281 game53% · 424 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaMira
54% · 270 games49% · 98 games
WindrangerMatthew
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
45% · 158 games52% · 174 games
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct28:40
Team Spirit 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperYatoro
39% · 28 games65% · 100 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLarl
47% · 65 games55% · 58 games
Legion CommanderChris Luck
Legion Commander
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCollapse
37% · 87 games66% · 72 games
VenomancerWisper
Venomancer
Batrider
BatriderMira
43% · 184 games52% · 122 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMiposhka
35% · 72 games61% · 84 games
Shadow DemonPanda
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2