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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 54 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 30 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
72%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Mira · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 22 games
64%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 30 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chris Luck · 27 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 27 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 500 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
574 picks · 507 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
562 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
546 picks · 598 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
543 picks · 1230 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1047 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
464 picks · 928 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 661 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:10
Team Spirit 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 19:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
VisageCollapse
57% · 110 games44% · 134 games
PuckChris Luck
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
51% · 80 games48% · 200 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Slark
SlarkYatoro
44% · 162 games51% · 138 games
BroodmotherWisper
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMira
50% · 149 games50% · 94 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
55% · 252 games51% · 187 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Game 2prediction missed42:30
Team Spirit 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
54% · 74 games53% · 107 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
53% · 63 games51% · 93 games
BroodmotherChris Luck
Broodmother
Visage
VisageCollapse
43% · 52 games55% · 95 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesMira
54% · 143 games45% · 47 games
Earth SpiritMatthew
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
49% · 150 games41% · 140 games
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2