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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 33 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 29 games
41%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 26 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 22 games
68%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 181 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 408 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
241 picks · 416 bans
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
229 picks · 375 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
228 picks · 357 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 443 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
221 picks · 176 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
219 picks · 411 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 22%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
Team Spirit 71%Evil Geniuses 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
55% · 55 games51% · 122 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 186 games55% · 21 game
AxeWisper
Axe
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
54% · 33 games49% · 51 game
Legion CommanderChris Luck
Legion Commander
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
53% · 42 games44% · 110 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Lion
LionMira
52% · 65 games49% · 77 games
Vengeful SpiritPanda
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Team Spirit 72%Evil Geniuses 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
33% · 36 games51% · 181 game
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
57% · 268 games54% · 278 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCollapse
55% · 83 games46% · 110 games
EarthshakerChris Luck
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
47% · 160 games41% · 64 games
GrimstrokeMatthew
Grimstroke
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
52% · 131 game53% · 45 games
WarlockPanda
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2