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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 16 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
54%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 11 games
91%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
90%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 9 games
89%

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 1015 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 604 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 190 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 367 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 510 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 679 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 226 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
264 picks · 145 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 32%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total87% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Team Spirit 75%EXTREMUM 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
45% · 48 games51% · 93 games
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Puck
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 143 games54% · 89 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
44% · 63 games59% · 109 games
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Centaur Warrunner
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
57% · 25 games45% · 7 games
HoodwinkChuvash
Hoodwink
Lion
LionMira
41% · 73 games50% · 54 games
Witch DoctorG
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct31:7
Team Spirit 75%EXTREMUM 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYatoro
54% · 67 games51% · 47 games
Templar Assassinmellojul
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 43 games56% · 40 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
47% · 15 games49% · 54 games
AxeShachlo
Axe
Mirana
MiranaMira
58% · 47 games47% · 75 games
Witch DoctorG
Witch Doctor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
44% · 63 games39% · 19 games
Skywrath MageChuvash
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 87%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2