The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 30 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 22 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 175 bans
Mars
285 picks · 397 bans
Lina
280 picks · 550 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
249 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
247 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
233 picks · 395 bans
Luna
223 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Team Spirit 78%Fnatic 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:49.
Game 2prediction correct31:28
Team Spirit 78%Fnatic 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2